Who will be President?
Speculations on the 2024 Sri Lankan Presidential Election
⚠️Warning: This Article is founded on speculative opinion. Not analytical fact.
“Who will win the Presidential Election?”, many friends ask.
“I don’t know. I don’t even know who’s running.”, is my usual answer.
“But what does your data say?”, they press.
Honest answer: Not much. I don’t have solid data, and without solid data, one can’t make solid conclusions.
But like many people, I too indulge in a spot of speculation, from time to time. And so, if you’re interested in my speculations, read on.
The “Data”
Many claim that they have very good data which will tell us exactly who is going to win the 2024 Presidential Election — which according to our constitution must be held before October.
When I ask them to show me their data, they usually say that the “data is private” and it was a “confidential survey”. I tend not to pursue further, because most of these people are charlatans or idiots, likely both.
That said, one organization, the Insititute of Health Policy (IHP), has been public about their election predictions, and has been consistently publishing poll results on Election Voting Intent in Sri Lanka. Here’s the January 2024 edition:
I don’t think the IHP are a bunch of charlatans. That said, many claim that they have their own biases, and personally, I have not seen the raw data which has been aggregated above. So, I can’t vouch for their poll.
That said, this is the best publicly published poll that we have. And so, I’m going to use it. I will make some adjustments, though.
The poll claims that their margin of error is only 1% to 4%. Given 1) the sample size of voters, and 2) the volatility of Sri Lankan Politics, especially these days, I suspect that the actual error is much larger.
If we assume that the error is, not 4%, but (say) 20%, the confidence intervals for the voting intention described above, begins to look like this:
To me, this seems a little more realistic, in terms of covering all the reasonable possibilities.
Alliances
As I mentioned, we still don’t know who will actually contest the next presidential election. While it is possible that parties will contest as the poll suggest, i.e. as four separate parties, it is also quite possible that various groups will form alliances.
The nature of the alliances will determine the final result.
2-Way: Old vs. New
Many claim that all the “old” parties, will gang-up against the JVP. This should give both sides a reasonable chance of gaining the 50% needed to win.
Which side is more likely to get it?
If we look at the raw poll numbers, it looks like Old would have an edge against the New.
That said, it is likely that there will be some “alliance-penalty”, where hardliners in one party will be unhappy with getting into bed with racists, 69ers, western-conspiracists, LGBTQs, Old Royalists etc. in another party. And so, the odds will shorten.
3-Way: Government vs. the Opposition
Since the current government is already an alliance-of-sorts of the UNP and the SLPP, it seems likely that these two parties will align. As before, there will be some “alliance-penalty” but probably less so.
Also, how people actually vote, usually differs from how people say they will vote before the election. And this factor might favor the “Government” alliance.
In this configuration, the JVP likely has the best chance of hitting 50%. But there is a good chance that no party will reach that halfway mark. In which case, and for the first time in presidential election history, 2nd-preferences will have to be counted. How that will end up is anyone’s guess.
3-Way: Old UNP
There have been multiple calls for the SJB to rejoin the UNP. I don’t know if that’s going to happen. Even if it happens, there is a chance that the SLPP will join with the “Old UNP”, and we get the Old vs. New 2-way race.
However, assuming this configuration, while the JVP still has the best chance of hitting 50%, the possibility of a 2nd-preference scenario is likely more likely.
4-Horse Race
Finally, we get the 4-Horse Race scenario where each party goes their own way.
In this scenario, there are no alliances and hence no “alliance-penalties”. As before, the JVP has the best chance of hitting 50% outright, but the chance of a 2nd-preference scenario is even more likely.
Other Alliances
I assumed that the JVP will not join any alliance, and that the SJB will not join with the SLPP alone. But these cannot be completely ruled-out.
There is also a possibility that certain parties will be split, and different members will support different alliances.
Comment if you think that I might have left out any important alliances.
Finally, I don’t consider how smaller parties and minorities will support the bigger parties. But this support will not be insignificant in determining the final result.
Concluding Warning
Let me restate. This Article is founded on speculative opinion. Not analytical fact.
Speculation is fun. But often, even usually, wrong. Many pinches of salt recommended.
