2020 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election
How the JJB might have won 10 seats
Lessons for next time
For many JJB supporters, the 2020 General Election was a disappointment. Winning only three seats, their disappointment was (probably) only second to the UNP (one seat).
The dissapointment might have been compounded by the fact that they came very close to winning more seats. In So close, yet so far (where I describe how with a few more votes, various parties might have won more seats), the JJB represented three of my “Top 10 so close misses”.
Some might consider this “bad luck” — a misfortune. Others, however, might consider this “carelessness”. I count myself in the second camp. Here’s why: With a few more votes in a relative small selection of areas, they could have more than tripled their tally to 10 seats.
“But why flog a dead horse?”, you might ask. “The election is over”.
And you’re partly right. There won’t be another parlimentary election for some time. Then, why am I writing this article? For three reasons:
- Any party wishing to win any seats at the next parliamentary election, must begin preparing now. In this sense, JJB included, it’s never too early to start.
- A party with ten seats in parliament has a lot more clout than one with three. Hence, if a party had a realistic chance of winning ten seats (and as we will see, the JJB had a realistic chance), they should take such opportunities very seriously.
- Even for larger parties, this exercise will be useful in determining which areas to focus on more, and which area less so.
3 Seats (actual 2020 Result)
Let’s recap. The JJB won three seats. One each in Colombo and Gampaha, and one on the National List.
The bulk of their votes was in the Western and Southern provinces. With a few spikes in urban centers.
4 Seats
The JJB’s closest miss was in Kalutara, where they won 33,434 votes. This translated into 4.77% of the total vote. And hence, the JJB were disqualified from winning a seat on the 5% rule.
With just 1,700* more votes (or +5% of what they already got), they would have qualified for seats on the 5% rule, and won a seat.
* See Appendix: Methodology
5 Seats
Matara was the next closest miss. The JJB won 37,136 votes or 7.76% (well above the 5% limit).
Unfortunately, with just 7 seats allocated to the district (one of which is reserved for the winning party), 7.76% was not sufficient to win a single seat. This number was revised down from the 2015 General Election that had 8 seats allocated to Matara. In an 8-seat-Matara, the JJB would have won a seat.
However, even with 7 seats for Matara, just 4,300 more votes (+12%), the JJB would have won a seat. And Sunil Handunetti might have sat in Parliament.
6 Seats
The JJB’s 6th seat would have come from Hambantota, where they won 31,362 votes, or 8.39%. Like Matara, Hambantota had only 7 seats.
With 4,200 votes (+13%, very similar to Matara), the JJB would have won a seat in Hambantota. And I wonder who the Handunetti of Hambantota would have been…
7 Seats
Now things get a bit more difficult. But hardly impossible.
In the Badulla District, the JJB got 19,308 votes or 3.87%. 6,000 more votes (+31% of 19,308) or a total of 25,308 votes, would have got them over the 5% line, and won them a seat.
Now you might argue that +31% is a tall order. In 2001, the JVP did win 26,820 votes in Badulla, easily over the 25,308 they needed to win a seat in 2020.
Never has the JJB or any of its past reincarnations, won a seat in Badulla. However, in 2020 the seats allocated for Badulla increased from 8 to 9. And hence, Badulla was definetely “in play” for the JJB. Perhaps they didn’t take it seriously.
8 Seats
The 8th seat would have come from Kurunegala, where the JJB won 36,290 votes, or 3.74%.
13,000 (+36%) more votes, would have won them a seat.
In percentage terms, 13,000 more votes would have got the JJB to around 5% of the votes. While they missed this target in most of the Kurunegala district, they did hit it in the Kurunegala Polling Division.
9 Seats
The 9th seat would have come from Anuradhapura, where the JJB won 24,492 votes, or 4.83%.
Another 9,000 votes (+37%) would have got them a seat.
Like the Kurunegala Polling Division, the JJB did relatively well in the more urban Anuradhapura East Polling Division. If they matched this performance in the rest of the district, a seat would have been guaranteed.
10 Seats
If the JJB succeeded in getting the extra seats in Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota, Badulla, Kurunegala, and Anuradhapura, they would also have got at least 38,200 more votes (1,700 + 4,300 + … etc) islandwide.
This was well over the 22,600 extra votes nationally (or about 5% of the 445,958 votes the JJB actually won islandwide), they needed to win a second national list seat.
Hence, 10 seats!
Concluding Thoughts
On the one hand, to be fair, not all the seats above are equal. While Kalutara, Matara and Hambantota were probably lost, Badulla, Kurunegala and Anuradhapura, clearly had to be won. And with a very strong showing at that.
On the other hand, both percentages and absolute votes to be won were not unreasonable numbers. Definitely within reach.
…
Appendix: Honourable Mentions
- 11 Seats: Galle. A seat with another 12,100 votes (+40%)
- 12 Seats: Colombo. A second seat with another 28,300 votes (+42%)
- 13 Seats: Gampaha. A second seat with another 41,800 votes (+68%)
Appendix: Methodology
There are two ways in which a party can get more votes: 1) “get out the vote” from their voters, who would have otherwise stayed home; 2) “steal” votes from other parties. In both cases, the votes of the said party would go up. In the former case, the votes other parties would stay fixed. While in the latter case votes would go down.
I assume the former case. It makes for easier analysis, because we don’t have to assume how many votes the said party “stole” from other parties. Often, the “theft” is asymmetric. Regardless, for a smaller party like the JJB, the two cases lead to similar results.
* For simplicity, in this analysis, I’ve rounded-up the “more votes” to the nearest 100 votes. The actual number could be lower.
[You can run my “simulations” here: https://observablehq.com/@nuuuwan/how-the-jjb-might-have-won-10-seats]
